Monday, December 26, 2011

TLT (iShares Barclays 20-year Treasury Bond ETF) at 118.17 Weekly Reversal Candle Points Lower (SELL)

TLT extended the decline off the 124.02 high (19 Dec), just shy of the 125.03 all time high (04 Oct 2011), to form a weekly reversal candle last week. With the MACD trending downward and RSI falling, further downside is anticipated. Concerted weakness below 115.08 (Support 1) would expose the key support at 109.82 (27 Oct low) (Support 2) for a retest. Only a downside break there would confirm the potential double top at 125.03/124.02 highs and initiate the next downleg towards 106.08 (Support 3) ahead of 102.95 (Support 4) near 61.8% retracement of the 88.14/125.03 upswing.

It would take strength above 124.02 (Resistance 1) to delay bears and shift immediate focus back towards the 125.03 record high (Resistance 2). Clearance above would suggest a 3-month base in place and allow bulls to seek the equality target at 128.91 (109.82/123.05 from 115.08).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 120.80 or higher;
Target at 109.82 and lower;
Stop Loss at 122.90 (1.7%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

BP (BP p.l.c) at 43.58 Breakout of a Weekly Bullish Flag Pattern Points Higher (BUY)

BP extended the rebound off the 33.62 low (04 Oct 20110) to reach 45.83 before consolidating to form a 6-week bear channel. The breakout above the channel resistance (from 45.83/44.89 highs/39.41 low) confirmed the bullish flag pattern, initiating the next upleg towards 44.89 for a retest (Resistance 1). Clearance above would offer scope for the 47.09/49.50 resistance zone (Resistance 2), near the 48.15 Fibonacci target (1.618x 33.62/45.83 rally from 40.60), which guards the 52.00 key resistance level (Resistance 3).

However, failure to sustain gains above 40.60 would delay bulls and reopens the key 39.41 support (Support 1). A downside break there would avert the upside and expose 33.62 for a retest (Support 2). Further weakness below the latter would signal the end of the consolidation and risk a deeper setback towards 26.75 (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 41.40 or lower;
Target at 44.89 and higher;
Stop Loss at 40.60 (1.9%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, December 5, 2011

LULU (Lululemon Athletica) at 48.30 Forming a 20-week Bear Channel above Key Level (S-T SELL)

LULU extended the decline off the record high at 64.49 (22 Jul 2011) within a bear channel (from 64.49/59.46 highs/44.27 low) to reach 41.71 (02 Dec 2011) ahead of the 41.18 key level (as shown in pink line) where consolidation took hold. With the trend indicator still negative, a potential swing high under 54.98 near the bear channel upper bounds is anticipated ahead of a retest of the key 41.70/41.18 support zone (Support 1). In the event of a breakdown there, risk is seen for an extension towards 36.35 (Support 2) ahead of 21.27 (Support 3). However, if the key 41.70/41.18 support zone holds, concerted strength above the 54.98 resistance (Resistance 1) near the upper channel bounds would re-open 59.46 (Resistance 2) which, if reclaimed, would confirm the breakout of the bear channel and extend the bullish continuation towards a 64.49 retest (Resistance 3) and higher.

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 54.00 or higher;
Target at 41.00 and lower;
Stop Loss at 55.00 (1.90%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Thursday, December 1, 2011

F (Ford Motor) at 10.63 Breaking above a 5-week Bear Trendline for a Potential Retest of 12.65 (BUY)

F fell from the 12.65 high (24 Oct 2011) to test the 10-month bear trendline support (former resistance off the 18.88/16.18/14.22 highs) which held. The subsequent rebound off the 9.75 low (25 Nov 2011) broke above the 5-week bear trendline (from 28 Oct/11//18 Nov highs 2011) to suggest that consolidation would continue. As the weekly trend/momentum studies remains bullish, there is scope for further strength towards the 12.65 range high (Resistance 1). Clearance above the latter would confirm a base in place and shift focus higher to 14.22 (Resistance 2) ahead of 16.18 (Resistance 3).
However, failure to clear 12.65 would delay bulls and reopens the key 9.75 support (Support 1). A downside break there would avert the upside and expose the 9.05 range low at 46.25 (04 Oct 2011) for a retest (Support 2). Further weakness below the latter would signal the end of the consolidation and initiate the next downleg towards 6.61.

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 10.00 or lower;
Target at 12.65 and higher;
Stop Loss at 9.80 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

PHM (PulteGroup) at 6.13 Extends Rally on Break Above the 3-week Bear Trendline (BUY)

PHM extended the rebound off the 5.08 low (23 Nov 2011) to break above the 3-week bear trendline resistance (from 11/18/25 Nov 2011 weekly highs), initiating the next upleg towards 7.03 (Resistance 1) near the double bottom pattern (at 3.40/3.29 lows) target measured from 5.16. Clearance above would open 7.97 (Resistance 2) near the equality target of the upswing (from 3.29/6.04) for a retest.

Meanwhile, failure to sustain strength above the 6.04/6.13 resistance would delay and re-opens 5.08 (Support 1). A downside break there is needed to avert the upside and expose 4.72 (Support 2) ahead of 3.29 (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 5.55 or lower;
Target at 7.90 and higher;
Stop Loss at 5.45 (1.50%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

WMT (Wal-Mart Stores) at 58.18 Breakout of A 11-month Bear Channel on the Weekly Chart Underpins Rally (BUY)

WMT extended the rebound off the 49.94 pivot low (23 Sept 2011) to break above the 11-month bear channel resistance (from 57.90/56.03 highs/50.97/48.31 lows) on the weekly chart before consolidating. With the weekly trend studies still constructive, a higher swing low is anticipated to form above 49.94 ahead of a return through 56.39 (Resistance 1). Further strength above the latter would allow bulls to retest 57.90 (Resistance 2). An upside break there would confirm a base in place and initiate the next upleg towards 59.23 (12 Dec 2008 high, Resistance 3) which guards the 3-year range high at 63.85 (19 Sept 2008 peak, Resistance 4).

However, a break below 49.94 (Support 1) would delay and reopens 48.31 (Support 2) near the bear channel support. Only a downside break there would avert the upside and expose the key 3-year range low at 46.25 (06 Feb 2009) for a retest (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 51.00 or lower;
Target at 57.90 and higher;
Stop Loss at 50.00 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, November 28, 2011

BA (Boeing) at 64.90 Potential Bear Channel Formation on the Weekly Chart Points Lower (SELL)

BA extended the decline off the current cycle (2009-2011) high at 80.65 (06 May 11) decisively through the 15-month bull trendline support (from 59.48/61.84/62.82 lows shown as pink line) to confirm a double top formation (at 76.00/80.65 highs). It reached 56.01 (12 Aug 11) before consolidating within a bear channel (67.73/68.76 highs/56.01/56.90 lows). A clean break below the 56.01/56.90 channel support (Support 1) is required to confirm the bear channel formation and initiate the next downleg towards 54.80 (Support 2) near 50% of the 29.05/80.65 rally then 47.18 (Support 3) near 61.8% retracement and close to the 47.33 double top target measured from 68.50 (bull trendline break) as well.

It would take strength above the key 68.76/71.63 resistance zone (Resistance 1) including the channel upper bounds and the pink bull trendline resistance (former support) to negate and confirm a base, shifting focus higher towards 78.35 (Resistance 2) ahead of 80.65 (Resistance 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 68.90 or higher;
Target at 47.18 and lower;
Stop Loss at 70.10 (1.70%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Sunday, November 27, 2011

UUP (PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish) at 22.43 A Potential Higher Low on the Weekly Chart Signals Further Upside (BUY)

UUP extended the rebound off the 21.07 low (27 Oct) on the weekly chart to seek a retest of the 22.62 high. The bullish MACD studies suggest further upside. A clean break above the latter (Resistance 1) would confirm the higher low at the 21.07 low and initiate the next upleg towards the 23.40/23.52 resistance zone (Resistance 2). Clearance above there would allow bulls to target 24.22 (Resistance 3).

However, in the event of a break below 21.58 (Support 1) would delay and reopens 21.07 (Support 2). Only a downside break there would avert the upside and expose the key 21.03/20.84 support zone for a retest (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 21.80 or lower;
Target at 23.52 and higher;
Stop Loss at 21.58 (1.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

INT (World Fuel Services Corp.) at 39.42 Confirmed a Double Top amid Bearish RSI Divergence to Point Lower (SELL)

INT extended the decline off the 42.12 high (11 Nov 2011), just shy of the 42.15 peak (25 Feb 2011), through the 39.23 pivot support to confirm a double top formation (at 42.03/42.12 highs). Further weakness below 36.70 would expose the 37.00 higher low (Support 1). A breakdown there would open 35.10 (Support 2) which guards 31.58 (Support 3).

It would take strength above 40.00 (Resistance 1) to delay bears. However, only above 40.66 (Resistance 2) would negate and shift focus higher towards 42.12(Resistance 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 39.70 or higher;
Target at 37.00 and lower;
Stop Loss at 40.10 (1.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Monday, November 21, 2011

SPRD (Spreadtrum Communications) at 23.56 Confirmed a Double Top amid Bearish RSI Divergence Points Lower (SELL)

SPRD extended the decline off the record high at 29.98 (16 Nov) decisively through the 25.50 pivot support to confirm a double top formation (at 28.75/29.98 highs). The bearish RSI divergence (comparing 28.75/29.98 highs) suggests further downside as well. Further weakness exposes 20.65 (Support 1) near the rising trendline support (off 8.59/16.52/16.11 lows) and close to the 21.50 double top target measured from 25.50. A breakdown below there would open the 16.11/16.52 support zone (Support 2) near the 61.8% retracement of the 8.59/29.98 rally.

It would take strength above 26.96 (Resistance 1) to delay bears. However, only above 29.39 (Resistance 2) would negate and shift focus higher towards 29.98 (Resistance 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 26.40 or higher;
Target at 20.65 and lower;
Stop Loss at 27.00 (2.3%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Thursday, November 17, 2011

ULTA (Ulta Salon) at 69.02 Potential Rising Wedge amid RSI Bearish Divergence Points Lower (SELL)

ULTA extended the decline off the record high at 75.69 (07 Nov) to test the 3-month rising wedge support line (from 48.28/51.64/64.03 lows) which held. However, the bearish RSI divergence (comparing 74.00/75.69 highs) suggests further downside. A downside break of 67.76 near the rising trendline support is required to confirm the top in place and allow bears to target 64.03 (Support 1). Clearance below would risk an extension towards 58.71 (Support 2) ahead of 51.64 (Support 3).

It would take strength above 71.71 (Resistance 1) to delay bears. However, only above 74.38 (Resistance 2) would negate and shift focus higher towards 75.69 (Resistance 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 70.80 or higher;
Target at 58.71 and lower;
Stop Loss at 71.75 (1.3%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

CVX (Chevron Corporation) at 100.96 Potential Double Top Pattern Underpins Further Downside (SELL)

CVX extended the decline off the record high at 110.01 (27 Oct) to probe the key support zone of 100.58/100.79/100.74, stalling at 100.74 (16 Nov low). A clean break of the key 100.74/100.79 support levels is needed to confirm the double top formation at 110.01/109.00 highs. A downside break there would allow bears to seek 96.25 (Support 1). Clearance below would risk an extension towards 92.72, near the projected double top target at 91.57 (Support 2) ahead of the key 86.68 reaction low (Support 3) for a retest.

It would take strength above 103.42 to delay bears. However, only above 107.33 (Resistance 1) would negate and shift focus higher towards 109.00 (Resistance 2) which guards 110.01 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 102.50 or higher;
Target at 92.72 and lower;
Stop Loss at 103.50 (1.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

UMC (United Microelectronics Corp) at 2.24 Imminent Breakout of a Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation Points Higher (BUY)

UMC rallied out of the 3-month base (05 Aug-21 Oct) to reach 2.36 (27 Oct high) before consolidation took hold. The recent 13-day range has taken shape of a symmetrical triangle (joining 2.36/2.29 highs/2.07/2.14 lows). A break above 2.25 (Resistance 1) would confirm the breakout of the triangle consolidation and initiate the next upleg towards the 2.29/2.36 resistance zone (Resistance 2). Clearance above would offer scope for 2.54 (Resistance 3).

However, if bulls fail to sustain gains above the bear trendline (off the 2.36/2.29 highs), a downside reversal below 2.14 (Support 1) would dampen the bullish outlook and re-open the key 2.07 support (Support 2). A breakdown there would suggest near-term topping and shift focus lower towards 1.84 which guards the 1.77 YTD low (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 2.18 or lower;
Target at 2.36 and higher;
Stop Loss at 2.14 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, November 14, 2011

HOLI (Hollysys Automation Technologies) at 8.49 Breakout of Rounded Bottom Pattern Underpins Further Rally (BUY)

HOLI extended the rebound off the 4.54 low to confirm the rounded bottom formation on break above the key resistance level at 7.50. The subsequent rally reached 9.26 before consolidating. An upside break above 8.70 near the bear trendline (off the 9.26/9.11/8.97 highs) would end the consolidation and initiate the next upleg towards 9.26 (Resistance 1). Clearance above would re-open the 10.50 pre-gap low near the mearsured target of the rounded bottom base (Resistance 2). Further strength there would offer scope for 11.54 (Resistance 3).

However, a break below the key 7.55/7.50 support zone (Support 1) would negate and re-open 6.30 (Support 2). Further weakness there would allow bears to seek 5.20 (Support 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 7.65 or lower;
Target at 10.50 and higher;
Stop Loss at 7.50 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Sunday, November 13, 2011

DLTR (Dollar Tree) at 78.67 Bear Channel Resistance May Cap for Further Consolidation (Short-term SELL)

DLTR has been descending within a bear channel (from 25 Oct/08 Nov highs/26 Oct low) since posting the 82.49 YTD high (25 Oct). While the 79.51 level near the bear channel resistance (10 Nov high) caps, further consolidation towards 77.32 is anticipated (Support 1). A break below there would open 76.32 (Support 2) ahead of 72.30 (Support 3) where a potential swing low would be formed before buyers would reassert.

However, a sustained break above the 79.51 resistance (Resistance 1) would negate and confirm the breakout of the bear channel. Clearance above would allow bulls towards 80.92 (Resistance 2) which shields 82.49 for a retest (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 78.80 or higher;
Target at 76.32 and lower;
Stop Loss at 79.51 (0.9%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Thursday, November 10, 2011

TSCO (Tractor Supply) Potential Double Top amid Bearish RSI Divergence Points Lower

TSCO formed a potential double top reversal pattern (from 74.51/74.43 highs ) amid bearish RSI divergence. A downside break below 71.21 would expose 66.15 for a retest (Support 1). A breakdown there would confirm the double top pattern and initiate the next downleg towards 65.11 (Support 2) ahead of 58.49 (Support 3) which is near the double top pattern’s measured target at 58.00.

However, recycle strength above the 74.43/74.51 resistance zone (Resistance 1) would negate and allow bulls to seek the Fibonacci target at 76.34 (0.618x 58.49/74.51 from 66.15, Resistance 2) then the equality target at 82.62 (1.000x 58.49/74.51 from 66.15, Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 73.50 or higher;
Target at 66.15 and lower;
Stop Loss at 74.50 (1.5%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

ZAGG (ZAGG) Bearish MACD points to further downside at 12.03 (SELL)

ZAGG extended the decline off the 14.00 high through the bearish rising wedge lower bounds (from 18/24/26 Oct lows) to test the 11.60 key support ahead of the current consolidation. In the meantime, the bearish MACD studies suggest further downside as well. A breakdown below 11.60 (Support 1) would initiate the next downleg towards 10.02 (Support 2). Clearance below would risk an extension towards 9.00 (Support 3) for a retest.

It would take strength above 12.75 (Resistance 1) to negate and re-open 13.33 (Resistance 2) which guards 14.00 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 12.00 or higher;
Target at 10.02 and lower;
Stop Loss at 12.50 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Monday, November 7, 2011

LNKD (LinkedIn) at 80.10 Confirmed a Triple Top Reversal Pattern amid Bearish RSI Divergence (SELL)

LNKD extended the decline off the triple tops at 92.61/95.00/94.32 through the support zone of 82.99/83.60, confirming the triple top reversal pattern. In the meantime, the bearish RSI divergence (formed from 92.61/95.00 highs) suggests further downside. While the tough resistance at 85.49 near the former 82.99/83.60 support caps, scope remains for bears to seek 75.37 (Support 1). Clearance below would risk an extension towards the projected triple top target at 72.20 (Support 2). A breakdown there would expose the key 70.75 reaction low (Support 3) for a retest.

It would take strength above 85.49 (Resistance 1) to negate and re-open 91.33 (Resistance 2) which guards 95.00 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 84.10 or higher;
Target at 72.20 and lower;
Stop Loss at 85.50 (1.7.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Sunday, November 6, 2011

RTH (Merrill Lynch Retail Holders) at 110.86 Staging a Bull Flag Breakout to Target the Record High (BUY)

RTH extended the rebound off the 106.61 low to break above the bear channel resistance (from 113.28/112.37/111.82 highs), ending the bull flag consolidation pattern. The upside break initiated the next upleg towards 113.28 for a retest (Resistance 1). Clearance above would re-open the 114.30 all-time high (13 May 2011) (Resistance 2). Further strength there would offer scope for the Fibonacci projection at 115.91 (0.618x 98.57/113.28 from 106.61, Resistance 3) ahead of the equality target at 121.63 (1.0x 98.57/113.28 from 106.61, Resistance 4).

However, a break below 108.61 would negate and expose 106.61 (Support 1). A clean loss there would confirm a lower swing high under the 113.28 resistance and risk a deeper setback towards 104.57 (Support 2). Further weakness there would allow bears to seek 98.57 (Support 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 109.80 or lower;
Target at 114.30 and higher;
Stop Loss at 108.60 (1.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, October 31, 2011

AAPL (Apple) at 404.36 Forming An Evening Star Reversal Pattern amid Bearish RSI Divergence (SELL)

AAPL posted an all-time-high at 426.70 (17 Oct high) before gapping down on 19 Oct, forming an evening star bearish reversal pattern. Since then, it has been consolidating under the 415.99 pre-gap low. The bearish RSI divergence (from 404.50/ 426.70 highs) also points lower. Failure to close the gap above 415.99 would recycle weakness towards a return to 390.75 (Support 1). Clearance below would suggest a lower swing high in place and risk an extension towards the key 354.26/353.02 support zone (Support 2). A breakdown there would expose the key 310.50 reaction low (Support 3) for a retest.

It would take strength above 415.99 to close the gap (Resistance 1). A break above would re-open 426.70 (Resistance 2). An upside breakout there would signal the end of the consolidation and initiate the next upleg towards the equality target at 462.19 (1.0 x354.26/426.70 from 390.75, Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 408.0 or higher;
Target at 354.26 and lower;
Stop Loss at 416.0 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Sunday, October 30, 2011

BAC (Bank of America) at 7.34 Breaking above 7-month Bear Channel to suggest higher (BUY)

BAC extended the rebound off the 5.13 YTD low (04 Oct) to break above the 7-month bear trendline (off 13.86/11.25/10.96 highs). The RSI divergence (from 6.31/5.13 lows) suggests continued strength higher. There is scope for bulls to target 8.80 (Resistance 1). An upside breakout there would signal a base in place and initiate the next upleg towards a series of lower highs starting from 10.05 (01 Aug high) (Resistance 2) then 10.28 (21 Jul) (Resistance 3) which guards 10.96 (07 Jul high) near the 10.91 key reaction low (30 Nov 2010) (Resistance 4).

However, failure to reclaim 8.80 would delay and re-open 6.90 (Support 1). A clean loss would expose 6.03 (Support 2). A breakdown there would form a potential swing high and risk a deeper setback towards the key 5.13 low (Support 3) for a retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 7.15 or lower;
Target at 8.80 and higher;
Stop Loss at 7.05 (1.4%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, October 24, 2011

SWY (Safeway) at 19.08Potential Rounded Bottom Base Forming to Signal Higher (BUY)

SWY extended the recovery off the 16.06 YTD low (23 Sept) to probe the 18.91/18.99/19.20 resistance zone amid bullish RSI divergence and constructive MACD studies. An upside break above the 19.20 resistance is needed to confirm the base and shift the medium-term focus higher towards 22.50 (Resistance 1) near the base measured target. Further strength above would stage 23.60 (Resistance 2) ahead of 24.28 (Resistance 3).

However, failure to clear 19.20 would negate and re-open 17.26 (Support 1), loss of which would expose 16.12 (Support 2) which shields 16.06 (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 18.50 or lower;
Target at 22.50 and higher;
Stop Loss at 18.20 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Sunday, October 23, 2011

M (Macy’s) at 29.73 31-month Bull Channel Underpins Further Advance (BUY)

M has ascended through a 31-month bull channel from (06 Mar 09/12 Aug 2011/07 Oct 2011 weekly lows/16 Oct 2009 weekly high). The recent advance off the 24.38 low (04 Oct 2011) near the bull channel support threatens the 30.62 high (22 Jul 2011) (Resistance 1) on the heels of a bull MACD cross. An upside breakout there would initiate the next upleg towards a series of lower highs starting from 31.55 (05 Dec 2007) (Resistance 2). Further strength above there would allow bulls to seek 33.76 (29 Oct 2007) (Resistance 3) which guards the 35.76 lower high (03 Oct 2007) (Resistance 4).

However, failure to reclaim 30.62 would delay and re-open 28.62 (Support 1). A clean loss would expose 24.38 (Support 2) for a retest. A breakdown there would form a potential swing high and risk a deeper setback towards the key 22.66/21.69 support zone (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday):
Buy at 29.00 or lower;
Target at 31.55 and higher;
Stop Loss at 28.60 (1.4%)

Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

EWG (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund) at 20.15 Potential Head-&-Shoulders Reversal Pattern Points lower (S-T SELL)

EWG could be forming a potential head-and-shoulders reversal pattern on the 60-minute chart if the shoulders’ support at 19.93 is broken. The downside break would allow bears to target 18.85 (Support 1) near the H-&-S measured target. Further weakness there would expose 17.89 (Support 2) which shields the 16.96 YTD low (04 Oct., Support 3).

However, if the 19.93 support holds, recycled strength above 20.78 would negate and reopen 21.04 (Resistance 1). Clearance above would signal the end of the consolidation and initiate the next upleg towards 21.33 (Resistance 2) then 22.16 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 20.30 or higher (on break below 19.93);
Target at 18.85 then 17.89 and lower;
Stop Loss at 20.78 (2.4%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

IYT (iShares Dow Jones Transportation ETF) at 84.21 2-Month Range Resistance at 86.22 May Cap Short-term (S-T SELL)

IYT posted a new YTD low at 70.82 (04 Oct), just short of the 69.94 key support of the 2010 low (6 Jul 2010), ahead of the powerful recovery through the 84.93 lower high. Further strength would allow bulls to challenge the major 2-month range resistance at 86.22 at 50% retracement of the 101.60/70.82 decline, where a potential swing high is anticipated. A reversal to the downside would re-open 79.06 (Support 1) then 75.36 (Support 2) where bulls may reassert.

However, clearance above 86.22 (Resistance 1) would negate and confirm the 2-month base in place above the higher reaction low at 70.82. Bulls would initiate the next upleg towards 92.02 (Resistance 2) then 94.64 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 85.50 or higher;
Target at 79.06 and lower;
Stop Loss at 86.50 (1.20%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Monday, October 17, 2011

GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee) at 81.36 Confirming Multi-month Top on Break below Key Support (SELL)

GMCR extended the decline off the 115.96 YTD high via lower highs to probe below the 82.40 low today, confirming another lower top at 96.77. Meanwhile, probing below the key 83.50/82.40 support zone confirmed the double top formation (from 111.42/115.96 highs), initiating the next downleg towards 73.27 (Support 1) then 63.71 (Support 2), possibly 47.81 (Support 3) near the double-top measured target.

It would take recycled strength above 96.77 (Resistance 1) to negate and re-open 108.86 (Resistance 2) which guards 115.96 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 87.00 or higher;
Target at 73.27 and lower;
Stop Loss at 89.00 (2.30%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Monday, October 10, 2011

PHM (Pulte Group) at 4.25 Bullish Divergence Underscores Further Upside (BUY)

PHM broke out of the 28-day falling trendline (from 30/31 Aug/20 Sep highs) on the heels of a bull MACD cross. The bullish RSI divergence (from 4.09/3.29 lows shown on chart) suggests further upside from current levels. While the 3.86 low (07 Oct) holds, there is scope for an up-leg towards the recent range resistance at 5.16 (Resistance 1). An upside break there would allow bulls to seek 6.31 (Resistance 2) ahead of 7.42 (Resistance 3).

However, a clean loss of 3.86 would negate and re-open the key 3.29 support (Support 1) for a potential retest. A breakdown there would risk a deeper setback to new lows.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 3.95 or lower;
Target at 5.16 and higher;
Stop Loss at 3.85 (2.5%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

TLT (iShares Barclays 20 year Treasuries ETF) at 119.17 Testing 5-week Rising Trendline amid Potential Bearish Divergence (SELL)

TLT extended the decline off the new YTD high at 125.03 (04 Oct) to test the 5-week rising trendline (from 106.08/111.25/115.76 lows) on the heels of a bear MACD cross on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the bearish RSI divergence (joins 123.87/125.03 highs) suggests that there is scope for further downside. A break below 118.99 near the rising trendline would allow bears to seek 115.76 (Support 1). A breakdown there would expose 111.25 (Support 2) ahead of 106.08 (Support 3).

However, recycled strength above 121.76 (Resistance 1) would negate and reopen 125.03. Clearance above would initiate the next upleg towards the equality target at 133.63 (projected 106.08/123.87 from 115.76) (Resistance 2).
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 122.00 or higher;
Target at 111.25 and lower;
Stop Loss at 125.00 (2.50%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

AOL (AOL) at 12.18 Bull trendline underpins further upside (BUY)

AOL tested the 7-1/2-week bull trendline (off the 10.06/11.07/11.28 lows) which held. Bulls posted a bullish outside day (04 Oct) supported by the RSI studies turning upwards. While the bull trendline holds, there is scope for further upside towards 13.04 (Resistance 1) then 14.92 (Resistance 2) near the wedge upper bounds. Clearance there would stage 14.92 (Resistance 3) which is near the 11-month falling trendline line (off the 27.65/22.47/20.83 highs).

However, a clean loss of 11.28 would confirm the trendline break and risk a 10.06 retest (Support 1). Further weakness there would allow bears to seek the Fibonacci projection at 9.55 (0.618x 16.69/11.07 from 13.04, Support 2) which shields the equality target at 7.41 (16.69/11.07 from 13.04, Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (or Intraday): Buy at 11.50 or lower;
Target at 14.92 and higher;
Stop Loss at 11.25 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, October 3, 2011

GOLD (Randgold Resources) at 99.99 Forming a bearish pennant (SELL)

GOLD declined off a double top (114.50/115.00 highs) to reach 92.50 before consolidating. It is potentially forming a bearish pennant pattern. A break below 94.85 near the lower bounds of the pennant pattern would confirm the pattern and initiate the next legdown towards 92.50 (Support 1). Clearance there would allow bears to seek 89.43 (Support 1) ahead of 82.66 (Support 1).

However, recycled strength above 102.39 (Resistance 1) would negate the pattern and reopen 106.19 (Resistance 1) which shields 115.00 (Resistance 1).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Sell at 100.40 or higher;
Target at 89.43 and lower;
Stop Loss at 102.40 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Thursday, September 29, 2011

POT (Potash) at 45.69 Forming Potential Double Bottom near Long-term Support Zone (Intraday BUY)

POT extended the decline off the 60.42 high to reach 44.50 (26 Sept low) and 44.52 (29 Sept low) near the 3-1/2-year 43.76/42.93 key support zone (28 Jan/7 Feb 2008). The bullish RSI divergence suggests a potential double bottom forming from the 44.50/44.52 lows. Recycled strength above 47.40 (Resistance 1) near the 2-week falling trendline (from 58.36 high) would re-open 50.41(Resistance 2) which, if breached, would confirm the double bottom and extend the rebound towards 54.32 (Resistance 3).

However, a break below 44.50 would risk a 43.76/42.93 retest. That would negate and stop out the trade.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Buy at 45.00 or lower;
Target at 50.41 and higher;
Stop Loss at 44.50 (1.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

NUS (Nu Skin Enterprises ) at 41.75 Heading Lower following Breakdown from Triangle Consolidation (Intraday SELL)

NUS posted a new YTD high at 46.93 (20 Sept) underpinned by the 22-day bull trendline. The downside reversal paused near the bull trendline forming a 3-day triangle consolidation pattern before breaking down. The oversold RSI and bearish trend studies continue to point lower. While the 43.28/44.48 resistance zone caps, scope remains for further weakness towards 40.55 (Support 1) then 38.85 (Support 2) ahead of 36.41 (Support 3).

However, recycle strength above 43.28 would negate and stop out the trade.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Sell at 42.50 or higher;
Target at 38.85 and lower;
Stop Loss at 43.28 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

WFM (Whole Foods Market, Inc.) at 71.00 RSI Bearish Divergence Signals Potential Topping (Intraday SELL)

WFM probed below the 70.69 low to confirm the RSI bearish divergence from the 72.76/72.85 highs which are short of the 73.33 all time high. While the 72.85/73.33 key resistance zone caps, scope remains for further weakness towards 69.04 (Support 1) then 66.51 (Support 2). A downside break there would confirm the lower high at 72.85 and initiate the next leg down towards 64.37 near the 6-1/2-week trendline support (Support 3).

However, recycle strength above 72.85 would negate and stop out the trade.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Sell at 71.50 or higher;
Target at 66.51 and lower;
Stop Loss at 72.85 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Monday, September 26, 2011

FCX (Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold) at 33.93 Breaks out of 3-day Base (Intraday BUY)

FCX broke out of the 3-day base with the intraday RSI shifting upwards. While the 30.97/31.15 intraday support zone holds, scope remains for further upside towards 35.35 (Resistance 1) for gap closure near the down trendline (from the 16 September high). An upside break above the trendline resistance is needed for further strength towards 37.41 (Resistance 2) then 38.63 (Resistance 3) which guards 40.77 (Resistance 4).

It would take a return through the 31.15/30.97 support to negate the rebound and stop out the trade.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Buy at 31.80-32.50 or lower;
Target at 35.56, 37.41, 38.63 and higher;
Stop Loss at 31.15 (>2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Thursday, September 22, 2011

USO (United States Oil Fund) at 31.30 Rising Wedge Breakdown Underpins Further Decline towards 25.50 (SELL)

USO completed a multi-month head-and-shoulder top after breaking below the 35.14 neckline support to reach 30.31 (09 Aug). The current 6-week consolidation formed a bearish rising wedge pattern ahead of the breakdown towards 30.31 (Support 1) for a potential retest. Clearance below would open 28.23 (Support 2). (30 Apr 2009 low) which guards 25.50 (head-and-shoulder top target measured from 35.14) (Support 3).

It would take a return above 34.06 (Resistance 1) to neutralize the near-term selling pressure and re-open 35.08 (Resistance 2) near the wedge resistance and the neckline as well. Only a decisive breach of the strong resistance zone would negate the wedge pattern and allow bulls to seek 39.25 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Sell at 32.30 or higher
Target at 28.23 and lower; Stop Loss at 33.00 (2%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

IWM (iShares Russell 2000) at 66.41 Potential Breakdown from the Triangle Consolidation Pattern (SELL)

IWM has been consolidating within a 7-week triangle pattern (from 12 Aug low/02 Sep high) following the sharp decline to reach 63.76 (12 Aug). The bearish momentum and trend studies on the weekly chart remain pointing lower. A break below 66.37 near the triangle support (from 12/26 Aug weekly lows) would open 63.76 (Support 1) for a potential retest. Clearance below would confirm the bearish triangle pattern and initiate the next leg-down towards 58.80 (Support 2). Further weakness below would allow bears to seek 47.42 (Support 3).

However, recycled strength above 73.89 (Resistance 1) would negate the near-term weakness and re-open 80.99 (Resistance 2). A sustained break above would shift the medium-term focus towards 85.97 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Sell at 67.00 or higher
Target at 58.80 and lower; Stop Loss at 69.00 (3%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

CTRP (Ctrip.com International) at 38.19 Forming Potential Multi-month Top on Break Below Key Level (SELL)

CTRP broke through the 2-1/2 year rising trendline (from 06 Mar 2009/18/25 March 2011 weekly lows) to reach 35.36 before consolidation took hold. The bearish momentum and trend studies on the weekly chart continue to point lower. While 43.20 (02 Sep high) near the long-term trendline resistance caps, scope remains for a retest of the 35.36 (12 Aug low)/35.44 (09 May 2008 high) support/resistance cluster near the key level at 35.00 (Support 1). A downside break there would weaken the medium-term outlook and initiate the next down-leg towards 31.35 (Support 2) near 50% retracement of the 9.50 (06 Mar 2009 low)/53.16 (05 Nov 2010 peak) rally. Further weakness there would expose 26.59 (Support 3) near 61.8% of retracement. However, recycled strength above 43.20 (Resistance 1) would improve the outlook and allow bulls to seek 47.54 (Resistance 2) which guards 50.47 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 42.5 or higher
Target at 31.35 and lower; Stop Loss at 43.20 (1.7%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

AAPL (Apple) at 414.99 Extends Gains Following Breakout of the 7-week Triangle (BUY)

AAPL broke out of the 7-week triangle consolidation before posting new all-time highs. While the 2-1/2 year rising trendline support (from 13 Mar 2009/07 May 2010/24 Jun 2011 lows) hold, scope remains for bulls to target 443.67 (Resistance 1) then 479.15 (Resistance 2) which guards 518.64 (Resistance 3) (all Fibonacci projections).

However, a clean break below 353.02 (Support 1) near the long-term rising trendline support would confirm the trendline break suggesting further downside. Below would open 310.50 (Support 2). A clean loss there would expose 275.00 (Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Buy at 360.00 or lower;
Target at 443.67 and higher; Stop Loss at 353.00 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

ICE (IntercontinentalExchange Inc.) at 123.46 Forming Bearish Divergence within a Long-Term Rising Channel (SELL)

ICE has been trading within a 39-month rising channel (from 05 Jun 2009 high/10 Jul 2009 low) while forming bearish weekly RSI divergence from 121.93 (05 Jun 2009 weekly high)/135.36 (11 Mar 2011 weekly high). While the 131.72 lower high caps, there is scope for bears to retest 102.57 (Support 1) near the channel support (from 83.00/92.18 lows). Clearance below would confirm the channel breakdown and initiate the next down-leg towards 92.18 (Support 2) then 83.00 (Support 3). Further decline there would open 60.39 (Support 4) for a potential retest.

However, ICE rebounded off the 102.57 low near the channel support on the heels of a weekly MACD cross above signal line. This also suggests that scope remains for further gains towards for 131.72 (Resistance 1). Only a sustained break above would shift the medium-term focus towards the 135.36 YTD high (Resistance 2). An upside breakout there would allow bulls to seek 160.10 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 129.00 or higher
Target at 102.57 and lower; Stop Loss at 131.75 (2.1%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

TLAB (Tellabs, Inc.) at 4.48 Broke out of the 5-month Wedge Pattern (BUY)

TLAB broke out of a 5-month wedge pattern following the new YTD low at 3.67 (23 Aug). The bullish MACD studies on the daily chart suggest that scope remains for further near-term strength towards 4.68 (Resistance 1). A sustained break there would allow bulls to target 5.47 (Resistance 2) near 50% retracement of the 7.31 (13 Jan 2011 high)/3.67 decline ahead of 5.80 (Resistance 3) near 61.8% retracement.

However, a breakdown below 3.91 (Support 1) would negate and re-open the 3.69/3.67 key support zone (Support 2). A clean loss there would initiate the next leg-down towards 3.52 then 3.10 (03 Mar 2009/10 Oct 2008 lows, Support 3 zone).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Buy at 4.00 or lower;
Target at 4.68 and higher; Stop Loss at 3.90 (2.5%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

GS (Goldman Sachs) at 107.01 Forming a Bullish Outside Week Candle (BUY)

GS posted a new YTD low at 99.78 (12 Sep) while sliding within a multi-week falling wedge. The reversal off the new low formed a bullish outside weekly candle (as of 16 Sep). The oversold weekly RSI shifting upwards indicates that scope remains for further recovery towards 118.10 (Resistance 1). An upside break there would shift the medium-term focus, promoting further recovery towards 129.50 (Resistance 2) ahead of 139.25 (Resistance 3) near 50% retracement of the 175.34/99.78 decline.
However, a breakdown below 99.78 (Support 1) would negate and initiate the next leg-down towards 92.55 (Support 2) then 79.27 (Support 3) near 76.4% retracement of the 47.41/193.60 rally.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Buy at 102.0 or lower;
Target at 129.50 and higher; Stop Loss at 99.75 (2.25%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

MS (Morgan Stanley.) at 15.49 Forming a Wedge Pattern While Seeking a Bottom (BUY)

MS posted a new YTD low at 14.71 (12 Sep) while sliding within a multi-week wedge. The potential bullish divergence of RSI studies on the daily chart (from 08 Aug/12 Sep lows) suggests that a near-term bottom cannot be ruled out. A break above 16.40 (Resistance 1). near the upper bounds of the wedge would neutralize the immediate weakness, promoting further recovery towards 17.73 (Resistance 2) ahead of 18.89 (Resistance 3).

However, a breakdown below 14.71 (Support 1) would negate and initiate the next leg-down towards 13.83 then 13.10 (21/20 Jan 2009 lows, Support 2/3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Buy at 14.90 or lower;
Target at 17.73 and higher; Stop Loss at 14.70 (1.7%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Monday, September 12, 2011

DAG (DB Agricultural Double Long ETN.) at 15.15 Pulling Back to Retest the Breakout of the Bullish Pennant Pattern (BUY)

DAG broke out of a six-month bullish pennant formation (from 04 Mar high/15 March low) to reach 16.49 (31 Aug high) before consolidation took hold. The current pullback is anticipated to form a higher swing low near the falling trendline support (from 04 Mar/04/25 Apr highs, former pennant resistance) at 14.34 where bulls may reassert ahead of a return through 15.32 (12 Sep high, Resistance 1). An upside break there would stage 15.77 (Resistance 2) then 16.49 (Resistance 3). Further strength would allow bulls to seek the 16.93 YTD high (10 Feb, Resistance 4).

However, a break below 14.34 would negate and expose 13.82 (19 Aug low, Support 1) then 12.89 (09 Aug higher low, Support 2). Further weakness below would risk a deeper setback towards 12.05 (30 Jun low, Support 3) for a potential retest.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Buy at 14.35 or lower;
Target at 15.77 and higher; Stop Loss at 14.10 (1.7%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Sunday, September 11, 2011

YHOO (Yahoo.) at 14.46 FORMING A POTENTIAL SWING HIGH AT MAJOR RESISTANCE (SELL)

YHOO rebounded from the YTD low at 11.09 (08 Aug) to break above the 3-1/2-month falling trendline (from 09 May/08 Jul/17 Aug highs), retracing over 38.3% of the 18.84/11.09 decline. The positive momentum suggests that further corrective strength is possible towards the major resistance zone from 15.41 (26 Jan low), 15.63 (16 May low) to 15.95 (07 Jul lower high) near 61.8% retracement of the retracement (Resistance 1) where bears may reassert to form a potential swing high. A downside reversal would target 12.45 (Support 1) which, if breached, would open 11.88 (Support 2) ahead of 11.09 for a potential retest (Support 3). However, a break above the 15.41/15.95 major resistance zone would negate the bearish scenario and allow bulls to seek 16.99 next which guards the 18.84 YTD high.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 15.70 or higher;
Target at 12.45 and lower; Stop Loss at 16.00 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Thursday, September 8, 2011

CSCO (Cisco.) at 16.21 Breaking Above Reverse Head-and-Shoulders Bottoming Pattern (BUY)

CSCO broke above the 3-1/2-month reverse head-and-shoulders resistance (from 31 May/21 Jul/11 Aug highs). The positive daily MACD studies suggest that there is scope for further strength towards 16.82 (31 May high, Resistance 1).) then 17.99 (11 May high, Resistance 2) near 50% retracement of the 22.34/13.30 seven-month decline. An upside break there would allow bulls to seek 19.70 near the head-and-shoulder target at 19.30 (Resistance 3).

However, a break below 15.41 (07 Sept low, Support 1) would expose the right shoulder support at 14.90 (19 Aug low, Support 2). Further weakness below would risk a deeper setback towards 13.30 (09 Aug 2011 YTD low, Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Buy at 15.20 or lower;
Target at 17.99 and higher; Stop Loss at 14.90 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher
 

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

NVDA (Nvidia Corp.) at 14.25 Breaking Out of A Bullish Wedge and 6-month Bear Trendline (BUY)

NVDA broke out of the 5-week bullish wedge pattern (02 Aug high/08 Aug low) which converges with the 6-month bear trendline (from 17 Feb/31 May/01 Jun highs). The breakout confirmed the bullish RSI divergence formed from the 08 Aug to 19 August 2011 lows on the daily chart. While the wedge support (from 02/12 Aug highs) holds, there is scope for bulls to re-open the 15.36 lower high (02 Aug, Resistance 1). Clearance above would extend gains towards 16.26 (05 Jul high, Resistance 2) ahead of 19.96 (01 Jun lower high, Resistance 3). However, a break below 12.38 (06 Sept low) (Support 1) would expose the key 11.65 low (19 Aug YTD low, Support 2) near the wedge support. Sustained weakness below would initiate the next down leg towards 10.36 (07 Oct 2010 low, Support 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Buy at 13.25 or lower;
Target at 16.26 and higher; Stop Loss at 13.00 (2.0%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

AUDUSD (Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar) at 1.0570 Bearish Divergence on the Weekly Chart Points Lower (SELL)

AUDUSD formed a bearish divergence from 02 May/27 Jul weekly highs ahead of the the decline to test the 28-month long-term rising trendline from Mar 2009 low. While the deteriorating MACD and RSI on the weekly chart continue to point lower, scope remains for further weakness towards 1.0360 (Support 1) near the long-term trendline then the key 0.9925 support (Support 2) for a potential retest. A breakdown below there would open 0.9533 (Support 3) near the 50% retracement of the 0.8062 (25 May 2010 low)/1.1085 (27 Jul 2011 high) 14-month upswing. It would take strength back above 1.0764 (01 Sept high, Resistance 1) to stabilize the market. An upside break there would re-open the significant 1.1085/1.1016 resistance zone (Resistance 2/3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 1.0630 or higher
Target at 0.9925 and lower; Stop loss at 1.0765 (1.9%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Monday, September 5, 2011

S&P 500 cash index (SPX) at 1173.97 POTENTIALLY FORMING A BEAR FLAG PATTERN (SELL)

SPX extended the 19-day consolidation (since 09 Aug YTD low) to form a potential bear flag. The recent advance stalled at 1230.71 (31 Aug) near the rising channel resistance (from 09/22 Aug lows/15 Aug high). The subsequent decline exposes 1135.91 (Support 1) near the lower bounds of the channel then the key 1121.09/1101.54 support zone (Support 2). A breakdown below there would open 1139.70 (27 Aug 2010, Support 3) for a potential retest. It would take strength back above 1230.71 (Resistance 1) to stabilize the market. An upside break there would re-open the significant 1249.05/1258.0 resistance (Resistance 2) (former support, 16 Mar/16 Jun lows). Only reclaiming the resistance zone would allow bulls to target 1286.56 (Resistance 3). near 76.4% retracement of the 1347.00/1101.54 fall.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 1180.00 or higher
Target at 1100.00 and lower; Stop loss at 1203.0 (1.9%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

Friday, September 2, 2011

IAG (Iamgold Corp.) at 21.39: 13-month Rising Trendline Supports Consolidation (BUY)

IAG has been basing above the 21-month falling trendline support (former resistance from 02 Dec 2009/12 May 2010/09 Nov 2010 highs) and the 13-month rising trendline support (from 27 Jul/17 Nov/01 Dec 2010 lows) since forming the double top at 23.38 (24 Mar/06 Apr 2011 YTD highs). The recent advance off the 18.20 low (11 Aug) extended to reach 21.81 (02 Sept) near the 5-month bear trendline (from 07/08 Apr/25 Jul highs) which, if breached, would expose the 22.20 pivot high (Resistance 1). With the daily trend/momentum studies still constructive, scope remains for bulls to target 23.38 (Resistance 2). Clearance above would initiate the next upleg towards the equality target at 25.00 (projected 16.06/23.38 from 17.69, Resistance 3). However, a break below 19.26 (Support 1) would indicate continuation of the 5-month base and reopen 18.20 (Support 2), then 17.69 (Support 3) near the 13-month rising trendline support where bulls may reassert.

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Buy at 20.30 or lower;
Target at 22.20 and higher; Stop Loss at 20.00< (1.50%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower at 18.20

Thursday, September 1, 2011

USO (United States Oil Fund) at 34.45 BEAR FLAG UNDER 10-MONTH HEAD-&-SHOULDER RESISTANCE (SELL)

USO’s corrective bounce off the 30.31 YTD low (09 Aug) within an upward channel indicated a bear flag and stalled at 34.89 (01 Sep high), just short of the formidable 35.14 shoulder resistance of the head-and-shoulder top pattern formed over the last 10 months. While the upper bounds of the channel near 35.14 caps, there is scope for a swing high ahead of a downside reversal. A break below the pre-gap low at 33.69 (Support 1) would expose 30.31 for a potential retest (Support 2). Additional weakness there would risk a deeper setback towards 25.50, the head-and-shoulder target (from 45.60/35.14, 02 May high/27 Jun low, Support 3). However, reclaiming 35.14 (Resistance 1) would negate the bear flag/head-and-shoulder patterns and shift the near-term focus higher. An upside break there would stage 37.33 (Resistance 2), near 50% retracement of the 45.60/30.31 ahead of 39.25 (Resistance 3) near 61.8% retracement.

Trading Indication: Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 34.70 or higher;
Target at 30.31 and lower; Stop Loss at 35.20> (1.4.0%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower