BA extended the decline off the current cycle (2009-2011) high at 80.65 (06 May 11) decisively through the 15-month bull trendline support (from 59.48/61.84/62.82 lows shown as pink line) to confirm a double top formation (at 76.00/80.65 highs). It reached 56.01 (12 Aug 11) before consolidating within a bear channel (67.73/68.76 highs/56.01/56.90 lows). A clean break below the 56.01/56.90 channel support (Support 1) is required to confirm the bear channel formation and initiate the next downleg towards 54.80 (Support 2) near 50% of the 29.05/80.65 rally then 47.18 (Support 3) near 61.8% retracement and close to the 47.33 double top target measured from 68.50 (bull trendline break) as well.
It would take strength above the key 68.76/71.63 resistance zone (Resistance 1) including the channel upper bounds and the pink bull trendline resistance (former support) to negate and confirm a base, shifting focus higher towards 78.35 (Resistance 2) ahead of 80.65 (Resistance 3) for a retest.
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 68.90 or higher;
Target at 47.18 and lower;
Stop Loss at 70.10 (1.70%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
It would take strength above the key 68.76/71.63 resistance zone (Resistance 1) including the channel upper bounds and the pink bull trendline resistance (former support) to negate and confirm a base, shifting focus higher towards 78.35 (Resistance 2) ahead of 80.65 (Resistance 3) for a retest.
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 68.90 or higher;
Target at 47.18 and lower;
Stop Loss at 70.10 (1.70%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
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