TLT extended the decline off the 124.02 high (19 Dec), just shy of the 125.03 all time high (04 Oct 2011), to form a weekly reversal candle last week. With the MACD trending downward and RSI falling, further downside is anticipated. Concerted weakness below 115.08 (Support 1) would expose the key support at 109.82 (27 Oct low) (Support 2) for a retest. Only a downside break there would confirm the potential double top at 125.03/124.02 highs and initiate the next downleg towards 106.08 (Support 3) ahead of 102.95 (Support 4) near 61.8% retracement of the 88.14/125.03 upswing.
It would take strength above 124.02 (Resistance 1) to delay bears and shift immediate focus back towards the 125.03 record high (Resistance 2). Clearance above would suggest a 3-month base in place and allow bulls to seek the equality target at 128.91 (109.82/123.05 from 115.08).
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 120.80 or higher;
Target at 109.82 and lower;
Stop Loss at 122.90 (1.7%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
It would take strength above 124.02 (Resistance 1) to delay bears and shift immediate focus back towards the 125.03 record high (Resistance 2). Clearance above would suggest a 3-month base in place and allow bulls to seek the equality target at 128.91 (109.82/123.05 from 115.08).
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 120.80 or higher;
Target at 109.82 and lower;
Stop Loss at 122.90 (1.7%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
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