AUDUSD formed a bearish divergence from 02 May/27 Jul weekly highs ahead of the the decline to test the 28-month long-term rising trendline from Mar 2009 low. While the deteriorating MACD and RSI on the weekly chart continue to point lower, scope remains for further weakness towards 1.0360 (Support 1) near the long-term trendline then the key 0.9925 support (Support 2) for a potential retest. A breakdown below there would open 0.9533 (Support 3) near the 50% retracement of the 0.8062 (25 May 2010 low)/1.1085 (27 Jul 2011 high) 14-month upswing. It would take strength back above 1.0764 (01 Sept high, Resistance 1) to stabilize the market. An upside break there would re-open the significant 1.1085/1.1016 resistance zone (Resistance 2/3).
Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 1.0630 or higher
Target at 0.9925 and lower; Stop loss at 1.0765 (1.9%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
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