ICE has been trading within a 39-month rising channel (from 05 Jun 2009 high/10 Jul 2009 low) while forming bearish weekly RSI divergence from 121.93 (05 Jun 2009 weekly high)/135.36 (11 Mar 2011 weekly high). While the 131.72 lower high caps, there is scope for bears to retest 102.57 (Support 1) near the channel support (from 83.00/92.18 lows). Clearance below would confirm the channel breakdown and initiate the next down-leg towards 92.18 (Support 2) then 83.00 (Support 3). Further decline there would open 60.39 (Support 4) for a potential retest.
However, ICE rebounded off the 102.57 low near the channel support on the heels of a weekly MACD cross above signal line. This also suggests that scope remains for further gains towards for 131.72 (Resistance 1). Only a sustained break above would shift the medium-term focus towards the 135.36 YTD high (Resistance 2). An upside breakout there would allow bulls to seek 160.10 (Resistance 3).
Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday):
Sell at 129.00 or higher
Target at 102.57 and lower; Stop Loss at 131.75 (2.1%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
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