Wednesday, September 21, 2011

IWM (iShares Russell 2000) at 66.41 Potential Breakdown from the Triangle Consolidation Pattern (SELL)

IWM has been consolidating within a 7-week triangle pattern (from 12 Aug low/02 Sep high) following the sharp decline to reach 63.76 (12 Aug). The bearish momentum and trend studies on the weekly chart remain pointing lower. A break below 66.37 near the triangle support (from 12/26 Aug weekly lows) would open 63.76 (Support 1) for a potential retest. Clearance below would confirm the bearish triangle pattern and initiate the next leg-down towards 58.80 (Support 2). Further weakness below would allow bears to seek 47.42 (Support 3).

However, recycled strength above 73.89 (Resistance 1) would negate the near-term weakness and re-open 80.99 (Resistance 2). A sustained break above would shift the medium-term focus towards 85.97 (Resistance 3).

Trading Indication:
Short-term (Intraday): Sell at 67.00 or higher
Target at 58.80 and lower; Stop Loss at 69.00 (3%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower

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