BP extended the rebound off the 33.62 low (04 Oct 20110) to reach 45.83 before consolidating to form a 6-week bear channel. The breakout above the channel resistance (from 45.83/44.89 highs/39.41 low) confirmed the bullish flag pattern, initiating the next upleg towards 44.89 for a retest (Resistance 1). Clearance above would offer scope for the 47.09/49.50 resistance zone (Resistance 2), near the 48.15 Fibonacci target (1.618x 33.62/45.83 rally from 40.60), which guards the 52.00 key resistance level (Resistance 3).
However, failure to sustain gains above 40.60 would delay bulls and reopens the key 39.41 support (Support 1). A downside break there would avert the upside and expose 33.62 for a retest (Support 2). Further weakness below the latter would signal the end of the consolidation and risk a deeper setback towards 26.75 (Support 3).
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 41.40 or lower;
Target at 44.89 and higher;
Stop Loss at 40.60 (1.9%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher
However, failure to sustain gains above 40.60 would delay bulls and reopens the key 39.41 support (Support 1). A downside break there would avert the upside and expose 33.62 for a retest (Support 2). Further weakness below the latter would signal the end of the consolidation and risk a deeper setback towards 26.75 (Support 3).
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Buy at 41.40 or lower;
Target at 44.89 and higher;
Stop Loss at 40.60 (1.9%)
Long-term: Possibly sell higher
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