TLT extended the decline off the new YTD high at 125.03 (04 Oct) to test the 5-week rising trendline (from 106.08/111.25/115.76 lows) on the heels of a bear MACD cross on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the bearish RSI divergence (joins 123.87/125.03 highs) suggests that there is scope for further downside. A break below 118.99 near the rising trendline would allow bears to seek 115.76 (Support 1). A breakdown there would expose 111.25 (Support 2) ahead of 106.08 (Support 3).
However, recycled strength above 121.76 (Resistance 1) would negate and reopen 125.03. Clearance above would initiate the next upleg towards the equality target at 133.63 (projected 106.08/123.87 from 115.76) (Resistance 2).
Trading Indication:
Short-term: Sell at 122.00 or higher;
Target at 111.25 and lower;
Stop Loss at 125.00 (2.50%)
Long-term: Possibly buy lower
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