7 USD Pairs Trend Table - August 6, 2014 (Wednesday)

Trend
	USDJPY	USDCHF	USDCAD	EURUSD	GBPUSD	AUDUSD	NZDUSD
6-month	Flat	Flat	Flat	Down	Flat	Down	Down
3-month	Flat	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down
1-month	Down	Up	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down

S&P 500 Index near term could pull back to the 50 day moving average key support zone amid weakening momentum indicators

S&P 500 Index advanced to a new record high at 1991.39 (24 July 2014) (near the rising wedge resistance on the monthly chart in log scale) before consolidating. (please refer to the monthly chart in the prior post.)

Near term, with potential negative daily RSI divergence from the price (linking 1985.59/1991.39 highs) and MACD below the signal line, there is scope for prolonged consolidation within the 4-1/2 week rising wedge (linking 1985.59/1991.39 highs and 1944.69/1955.59 lows on the daily chart). If the 1991.39 peak manages to cap near-term, the index would retest the 1952.86 higher low near the 50 day moving average currently at 1950.24 which may contain pullbacks.

A move back above 1991.39 is needed to complete a higher base and signal resumption of broad uptrend towards the 2000.00 psychological level). Above there would open the next Fibonacci target at 2047.41 (projected 666.79/1364.56 from 1074.77).

On the downside, if the index breaks below the 50 day moving average, it would suggest near-term topping and trigger further weakness towards 1944.69. Below lies the 1925.78 and 1902.17 near the bull channel support (from June 2013 low).

Strategy

Buy on pullbacks to 1950.00 area

Stop below 1950.00

Target 2000.00

Sell on rallies to 1944.00-1950.00 area

Stop above 1950.00

Target 1900.00

S&P 500 Index daily

S&P 500 Index monthly and weekly charts (log scale): long-term uptrend is to approach the rising wedge apex

S&P 500 Index monthly (log scale)

 S&P 500 Index weekly (log scale)

US Dollar Index (DXY) posts new 6 month highs towards the 81.482/81.388 range resistance area; strong momentum suggests further upside; Buy on pullbacks

US Dollar Index (DXY) channeled up strongly for the last three weeks to threaten the 81.482/81.388 8-month resistance zone. With the daily and weekly indicators still bullish, scope remains for further upside. Reclaiming 81.482 would complete an 11-month flat base over the 78.998/78.906 lows and trigger further gains towards 82.671 (Sept 5, 2013 lower high) initially. 80.801 near the 3-week channel support should hold dips. Only below there would dampen the bullish momentum and expose 80.420 and the 200 day moving average currently at 80.292.

Trading Bias

Near term, buy on pullbacks

Buy zone around 80.700-80.800

Stop below 80.420

Target near 81.480 – 81.600

DXY daily chart

DXY weekly chart

USDCAD bases above key retracement and 20-month moving average; Buy on dips

USDCAD stabilized at 1.0618 (July 3 low) which is just above the rising 20 month moving average and near 61.8% of the 1.0182/1.1280 up-move (see monthly/weekly chart), signaling basing. 

On the daily chart, the recent rebound off the double bottom (1.0618/1.0626) breaks above the 4-month falling trendline (red line), signaling more bullish momentum ahead. The improving indicators confirm the view.

On the 240minute chart, the pair broke out of a bullish triangle pattern, looking to test 1.0795 near the 50 day moving average (aqua line, daily chart). Above there lies resistance cluster including the prior swing lows at 1.0813/1.0819, 200 day MA at 1.0829 and 61.8% of the 1.0962/1.0618 fall. An extension through there would target 1.0890 near 76.4% retracement.

On a pullback, the 1.0790 zone should support dips (i.e., where stops for long trade should be). Below there would shift the focus back to the 1.0618/1.0626 basing zone. A clean breakdown there would signal topping under the 200 day MA and resume the downtrend off March 2014 peak towards 1.0182.

Trading bias:

Short term: 

Buy zone around 1.0740-1.0750

Stop below 1.0709

Target near 1.0825 - 1.0890

Long-term:

Buy zone around 1.0700

Stop below 1.0618

Target near 1.1054

USDCAD monthly chart

 USDCAD weekly chart

 USDCAD daily chart

 USDCAD 240min chart

July 24 (Thursday): Trading Bias for 7 USD pairs

Major Support and Resistance Levels for 7 USD pairs and ATR (daily)

Key Levels
	USDJPY	USDCHF	USDCAD	EURUSD	GBPUSD	AUDUSD	NZDUSD
Resistance 3	102.39	0.9158	1.0826	1.3575	1.7119	0.9600	0.8721
Resistance 2	102.28	0.9130	1.0795	1.3550	1.7097	0.9546	0.8697
Resistance 1	102.04	0.9084	1.0768	1.3510	1.7055	0.9506	0.8649
Support 1	101.41	0.8991	1.0709	1.3399	1.6952	0.9380	0.8556
Support 2	101.07	0.8967	1.0660	1.3357	1.6883	0.9330	0.8517
Support 3	100.82	0.8951	1.0618	1.3319	1.6845	0.9278	0.8452
Daily ATR (14)	0.36	0.0034	0.0049	0.0044	0.0068	0.0054	0.0058