Commodity Index (CCI) seems to be basing near the key 500 level; Current bounce targets 521.14

CCI found support at 503.24 (7 Aug low) ahead of the key support zone between 499.99 (28 Jun YTD low) and 502.28 (1 Jun 2012 low). This is also near the significant 50% retracement of the entire rise from 322.53 (Dec 2008 low) to 691.09 (Apr 2011 high). While the daily studies are improving, there is scope for further recovery towards the 521.14 lower ceiling (22 Jul high). Clearing the latter is needed to confirm a double bottom at 499.99/503.24 and trigger further gains towards the 200 day moving average currently at 544.71.

However, failure to hold the 499.99 key support would negate the upside and accelerate the 16-month downtrend from the April 2011 peak towards 477.39 (May 2010 low, shown on the monthly chart).

The latest price action in CCI has been encouraging. Bears tested the 2012 low at 502.28 (Jun 2012) near the key 50% retracement of the entire rise from 322.53 (Dec 2008 low) to 691.09 (Apr 2011 high) to stall at 499.99 (Jun 2013 low). The US Dollar has been sliding for the last five weeks, which could provide a catalyst for the commodities to stabilize here. We need to see bullish momentum on the daily chart to suggest basing.

Potential 3-1/2 week Expanding Triangle Top Forming; Targets 8-month Bull Channel Support near 15230

DJIA has been consolidating within a potential 3-1/2 week expanding triangle (a potential topping pattern) under the record high at 15658 (2 Aug). The bullish momentum seems to be waning as potential 3-month bearish divergence (from May 22 and Aug 2 highs) is forming. While the 15658/the rising trendline (from 18 Jul high/1/2 Aug highs) resistance zone caps further gains, a push below the key 15405 support (26 Jul low) would suggest completion of the expanding triangle topping pattern and trigger more downside towards 15230 (38.2% of 14551/15658 rise) which is also near 8-month bull channel support (from Nov 2012 low). Further weakness below the latter would expose the 5-month bull channel lower bounds (19 Mar/19 Apr/24 Jun lows) currently at 14615 for a retest.

However, if the 15405/15230 support zone holds, consolidation would continue. An upside break above 15658 would confirm a higher base and stage the potential upside target at 16250 which is near the converging point of the 53 month bull channel (from Mar 2009 low) and the aforementioned 8-month bull channel upper bounds. 

The long term uptrend remains intact while the 4.5-year bull channel support holds.

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) - 3-year bull trendline underpins further upside

XLU (38.65) broke above 38.45 (Jun 19 high) to confirm a base over 35.80 (Jun 21 low) near the 3-year bull trendline support (Aug 2011/Nov/Dec 2012 lows). While the gap low at 38.00 (Jul 10 high) and then the 200 day moving average currently at 37.25 support near-term dips, bulls are favored to extend the uptrend towards 39.45 (May 10 low). Further strength above there would open 40.54 (May 22 lower high) ahead of the YTD high at 41.44 (Apr 30).
However, falling below 37.25 would delay and expose the 36.51/35.80 key support zone (Jul 5/Jun 21 lows) for a retest.

Verizon (VZ) -- Potential 6-week range breakdown; Eyes 3-year bull trendline support area at 45-46

VZ ($50.24) has been consolidating under 51.69 (Jun 18 high) forming a triangle pattern. As both the RSI and Stochastics turned bearish, there is scope for the stock to test the 6-week bull trendline support currently at 50. A breakdown would confirm bear continuation and fuel further losses towards 48.81 (Jun 24 low). Below the latter would expose 47.77 (Jun 3 low). More weakness from there would open the key support cluster including 3-year bull trendline support (Aug 2011/April/2012/Jan 2013 lows) currently at 45.00, the 44.98/44.87/44.88 prior highs (Dec 2012/Jan/Feb 2013 highs) and the equality target (54.31/47.77 projected from 51.69) at 45.15.
However, an upside break above 51.69 would negate and confirm a higher low at 47.77, extending the broad uptrend towards 54.31 (Apr 30 YTD high) for a retest.

Commodities Index (CCI) foung support at 500 key level; Dollar Index (DXY) stalled at 3-year key resistance

S&P Index -- Long-term Uptrend Remains Intact; Short-term Targets 1536.0

US Dollar Index -- Consolidates within a 18-month Range; Targets Range Top at 81.50