Thursday, August 8, 2013

Commodity Index (CCI) seems to be basing near the key 500 level; Current bounce targets 521.14



CCI found support at 503.24 (7 Aug low) ahead of the key support zone between 499.99 (28 Jun YTD low) and 502.28 (1 Jun 2012 low). This is also near the significant 50% retracement of the entire rise from 322.53 (Dec 2008 low) to 691.09 (Apr 2011 high). While the daily studies are improving, there is scope for further recovery towards the 521.14 lower ceiling (22 Jul high). Clearing the latter is needed to confirm a double bottom at 499.99/503.24 and trigger further gains towards the 200 day moving average currently at 544.71.

However, failure to hold the 499.99 key support would negate the upside and accelerate the 16-month downtrend from the April 2011 peak towards 477.39 (May 2010 low, shown on the monthly chart).



The latest price action in CCI has been encouraging. Bears tested the 2012 low at 502.28 (Jun 2012) near the key 50% retracement of the entire rise from 322.53 (Dec 2008 low) to 691.09 (Apr 2011 high) to stall at 499.99 (Jun 2013 low). The US Dollar has been sliding for the last five weeks, which could provide a catalyst for the commodities to stabilize here. We need to see bullish momentum on the daily chart to suggest basing.

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