July 24 (Thursday): Trading Bias for 7 USD pairs

Major Support and Resistance Levels for 7 USD pairs and ATR (daily)

Key Levels
	USDJPY	USDCHF	USDCAD	EURUSD	GBPUSD	AUDUSD	NZDUSD
Resistance 3	102.39	0.9158	1.0826	1.3575	1.7119	0.9600	0.8721
Resistance 2	102.28	0.9130	1.0795	1.3550	1.7097	0.9546	0.8697
Resistance 1	102.04	0.9084	1.0768	1.3510	1.7055	0.9506	0.8649
Support 1	101.41	0.8991	1.0709	1.3399	1.6952	0.9380	0.8556
Support 2	101.07	0.8967	1.0660	1.3357	1.6883	0.9330	0.8517
Support 3	100.82	0.8951	1.0618	1.3319	1.6845	0.9278	0.8452
Daily ATR (14)	0.36	0.0034	0.0049	0.0044	0.0068	0.0054	0.0058

Trend direction table for 6 USD pairs

Trend Table
	USDJPY	USDCHF	USDCAD	EURUSD	GBPUSD	AUDUSD	NZDUSD
6-month	Flat	Flat	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up
3-month	Flat	Up	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up
1-month	Flat	Flat	Up	Down	Down	Flat	Down

AUDUSD rebounded strongly off a 4-month rising trendline and 50 day MA to eye .9506 amid improving indicators

AUDUSD found support at .9330 last week and rebounded strongly after testing a 4-month rising trendline (blue line, daily chart) and the 50 day moving average (aqua line). The daily MACD is about to cross above the signal line, suggesting scope for further upside.

Clearing .9457 would confirm a base over .9322/.9330 zone and trigger further strength towards .9506 peak. Above there would extend the 6-month uptrend towards .9545/.9600.

However, if the pair fails to break through .9506 zone which is near 76.4% of the entire .9758/.8658 fall (as shown on the weekly chart), that would suggest further consolidation. A push below .9380 (Jul 23 low, 240min chart) would signal further ranging and test .9330 area. A clean breakdown there would confirm a multi-week top and accelerate weakness towards .9208/.9202 near the 200 day moving average (black line, daily chart).

Trading bias:

Buy zone around .9410/.9420

Stop below .9380

Target near .9506/.9545

AUDUSD  weekly chart

 AUDUSD  daily chart

 AUDUSD  240min chart

S&P 500 Index clears a 4-week triangle resistance to eye early July's 1985.59 record high

S&P 500 Index probed above a 4-week triangle pattern resistance to confirm a higher base over 1952.86, extending the broad uptrend to test the early July’s 1985.59 record high. Above lies the 2000.00 psychological level ahead of the Fibonacci projections at 2004.44 then 2011.33.

However, with the daily MACD below the signal line, it is possible we could see a fake breakout. If the 1985.59 area manages to cap the rebound, the index would remain range bound to retest the 1952.86/1944.69 support zone. 

Trading bias:

Buy zone: 1967.00 area

Stop below 1965.00

Target near 2000.00 possibly 2011.00

S&P 500 Index daily chart

 S&P 500 Index 240min chart

 S&P 500 Index 15min chart

NZDUSD broke below a 3-week rising trendline amid potential bearish weekly divergence, offering scope for further downside towards key retracements

NZDUSD rallied to .8836 on July 10^th, a new 3-year high near August 1 2011 peak at .8843. However, the potential bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart cautions. 

The retreat of the .8836 peak broke through a 3-week rising trendline from .8662 low, exposing .8662 area near 38.2% of the .8402/.8836 upswing.  Beneath lies the next support at .8642 near the 50 day moving average ahead of .8619, 50% retracement, where buyers may emerge.

On the upside, a reversal back through the .8751/.8771 resistance zone (10/20 day moving averages and the aforementioned trendline support now resistance) is needed to suggest basing and signal a return of strength towards .8836.

Trading bias:

Sell zone around .8720/.8740

Stop above .8771

Target near .8642

NZDUSD weekly chart

 NZDUSD daily chart

 NZDUSD 240min chart

EURUSD extends lower towards key support zone as 7-month rising wedge breakdown and 50/200 MAs dead cross weigh on the pair

The 7-month rising wedge breakdown in early May continues to weigh on the pair. EURUSD has been capped under the falling 50 day MA (aqua line) since the dead cross (50 day MA crossed below 200 day MA (black line)). The recent slide off 1.3652 lower high threatens to test 1.3503/1.3512 supports. Bearish daily studies suggest that a breakdown there is possible to extend weakness towards 1.3477 near 76.4% of the 1.3295/1.3993 rise. Below there would expose last November low at 1.3295.

On the upside, reclaiming 1.3652 then 1.3701 would negate the bearish scenario and stabilize for 1.3735.

Trading bias:

Sell zone: 1.3620/1.3650

Stop above 1.3701

Target near 1.3477

EURUSD daily chart

EURUSD weekly chart