Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Can QQQ/Russell 2000 rally back above 50 day moving average? Can Dow Jones (DJIA) break to new highs?



QQQ rebounded after testing the key support level (83.68/83.37/83.28 area), near the 200 day moving average. Volume has been supportive as up volumes were higher than down volumes. MACD shows positive momentum below the zero line. However, the rebound seems to be corrective so far. A break above the 88.21 level and the 50 day MA at 88.40 is needed to defer and signal further strength towards 89.68 and higher.
A breakdown below the 4-month support line (yellow) would complete a head-and-shoulders top.
$RUT daily chart looks similar to QQQ.
DIA (DJIA ETF) looks the best out of the three. It should break above the 166.51/166.06 record high area quickly and decisively to negate a double top/triple top scenario.

If DJIA breaks out to new highs, then nasdaq and $RUT would follow, negating the bearish topping scenario. 

Monday, April 28, 2014

AUDUSD extends correction amid bearish momentum; .9200 area houses cluster of supports; near term sell

Monday’s bounce was capped at the falling 10 day ma at .9303. Bearish momentum remains strong but it is not oversold yet. The next support levels are .9205, .9190 and .9165/.9155 (50/200 day MAs).
.9315 should cap near term.
Trade idea:
Sell: around .9260/.9280
Stop above .9315

Target at .9200/.9140

Sunday, April 13, 2014

S&P 500 index (SPX) could test the 200 day MA next


$SPX daily 

For S&P, since it broke the 50 day MA (yellow line on the daily chart), it has a good chance to test the 1738 area near the 50 week MA (i.e., 200 day MA currently at 1761, 3% down from last Friday’s 1816 close). We need to see how it reacts once it tests the 200 day MA area. Whether it is going to seriously break down there as it did in 2010 and 2011 remains to be seen.


$SPX weekly



As shown on the weekly chart, once the 200 day MA is broken, then the next support zone lies in the 1585/1485 range (i.e., 38.2% and 50% retracements of the Oct 2011/Apr 2014 rise).