Tecniview is a blog about quantifying market moves using technical analysis, focusing each day on a single financial instrument.
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Can QQQ/Russell 2000 rally back above 50 day moving average? Can Dow Jones (DJIA) break to new highs?
QQQ rebounded after testing the key support level
(83.68/83.37/83.28 area), near the 200 day moving average. Volume has been
supportive as up volumes were higher than down volumes. MACD shows positive
momentum below the zero line. However, the rebound seems to be corrective so
far. A break above the 88.21 level and the 50 day MA at 88.40 is needed to
defer and signal further strength towards 89.68 and higher.
A breakdown below the 4-month support line (yellow) would
complete a head-and-shoulders top.
$RUT daily chart looks similar to QQQ.
DIA (DJIA ETF) looks the best out of the three. It should break
above the 166.51/166.06 record high area quickly and decisively to negate a
double top/triple top scenario.
If DJIA breaks out to new highs, then nasdaq and $RUT would
follow, negating the bearish topping scenario.
Monday, April 28, 2014
AUDUSD extends correction amid bearish momentum; .9200 area houses cluster of supports; near term sell
Monday’s bounce was capped at the falling 10 day ma at
.9303. Bearish momentum remains strong but it is not oversold yet. The next
support levels are .9205, .9190 and .9165/.9155 (50/200 day MAs).
.9315 should cap near term.
Trade idea:
Sell: around .9260/.9280
Stop above .9315
Target at .9200/.9140
Sunday, April 13, 2014
S&P 500 index (SPX) could test the 200 day MA next
$SPX daily
For S&P, since it broke the 50 day MA (yellow line on
the daily chart), it has a good chance to test the 1738 area near the 50 week
MA (i.e., 200 day MA currently at 1761, 3% down from last Friday’s 1816 close).
We need to see how it reacts once it tests the 200 day MA area. Whether it is
going to seriously break down there as it did in 2010 and 2011 remains to be
seen.
$SPX weekly
As shown on the weekly chart, once the 200 day MA is broken,
then the next support zone lies in the 1585/1485 range (i.e., 38.2% and 50%
retracements of the Oct 2011/Apr 2014 rise).
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