Continuous Commodity Index (CCI): Long-term Triangle Breakout; Bullish Indicators Point higher

• Continues to base above the key 500 level. The latest upside break above the long-term down trendline, coupled with strengthening indicators, suggests that there is scope for further gains towards 529 and higher.

More information on the CCI index:

The CCI stems from the original CRB Index, created in 1957. It is a ‘snapshot’ of the index at its 9th revision in 1995, before it underwent weighting and rebalance changes in the 10th revision. It is sometimes referred to as the ‘Old CRB’.

The 17 components of the CCI are continuously rebalanced to maintain the equal weight of 5.88%. Since CCI components are equally weighted, they therefore distribute evenly into the major sectors: Energy 17.65%, Metals 23.53%, Softs 29.41% and Agriculture 29.41%. While other commodity indices may overweight in certain sectors (e.g. Energy), the CCI provides exposure to all four commodity subgroups.

The Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index is published Real Time and is widely disseminated to subscribers including traders, analysts, consultants and media outlets. It is licensed for the creation of over-the-counter products by Thomson Reuters.

Greenhaven Funds developed a fund that tracks the CCI, called the Greenhaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund (GCC).

SP 500 Futures (H4) Weekly: 15-month bull trendline breakdown; DJIA: Testing 200 day moving average

• Broke below 15-month bull trendline amid weakening indicators
• Risk remains for further downside towards 1640.5 near the 59-month bull channel support zone (off March 2009 low)

• Corrected lower to test the 200 day/ 50 week MA
• Deteriorating indicators suggest that scope remains for further downside towards 14719 near the 27-month bull channel support

30-year Treasury Bond threatens 132-12/23 key resistance level; 30-year bond yield forms a double top, going lower

• T-bond found support near the 6-year bull trendline at 127-23 before recovering higher
• The strong recovery is threatening the key 135-12/135-23 resistance area near the 200-wk moving average
• Strengthening indicators suggest that scope for an upside range breakout is possible.

• 30-year Treasury yields confirmed a double top at 3.940/3.976 on the break below 2.532.
• Bearish indicators suggest further weakness remains possible towards 3.492 then 3.250 area.

 

2/30’s Yield Curve Weekly Chart: Flattens to new 2-month lows, testing key long-term support zone

• 2/30’s spread has been easing to post new 6-month lows, testing the 6–year key support trendline (former resistance) currently at 328 and the 200 week MA at 317.
• Weakening indicators suggest there is scope lower towards 301.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Forms a bearish Tweezer Top on monthly chart; Potential head & shoulders topping pattern on daily chart

SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) ($178.18)

February 1, 2014

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SPY consolidates within a 5-day range under Jan 30’s 179.81 high;

176.88 (Jan 29 range low)/177.32 (Dec 18 reaction low)/177.98/(Nov 20 low) becomes key support area;

Potential head & shoulders topping pattern could be forming if the above support line (pink) is broken;

Forms a bearish Tweezer Top (184.69 (Dec 2013 monthly high)/184.94 (Jan 2014 monthly high) which typically resolves to the downside;

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SPY:  Consolidats within a 5-day range under 179.81 last week. Weakening momentum and bearish RSI divergence continue to weigh. The pink trendline (connecting 176.88 (Jan 29 range low)/177.32 (Dec 18 reaction low)/177.98/(Nov 20 low)) forms the potential shoulders line of a 3-month head & shoulders topping pattern which requires a breakdown to confirm.

 

If SPY bounces off the 176.88 support near 38.2% of the upmove from 10/9/13 low (164.53/184.94 rise) and 100 day moving average at 177.00,  that would prolong the consolidation and reopen the 179.81, then 181.75 (11/29/13 range high/181.66 (1/24 daily high-gap low)/181.34 (1/13 range low) short-term resistance area.

 

If SPY decisively breaks below the aforementioned pink-line support,  medium-term supports rest at 174.76 (Nov 7 higher low) near 14-month bull trendline from November 2012 low (connects 11/16/12 and 10/9/13 lows) and 50% of the 164.53/184.94 rise.

 

Beneath would open 173.60 (9/19/13 high) near 23.6% of the entire upleg from 11/12/16/12 low (134.70/184.94), 170.97 (8/2/13 high) /169.07 (5/22/13 high) near 50% of the upmove from 6/24/13 low (155.73/184.94), the 200 day moving average and potential H&S target.

 

Long-term supports lie at 164.53 (10/9/13 higher low) near 38.2% of entire upleg from 11/12/16/12 low (134.70/184.94) and 159.71 (4/11/13 high)/160.22 (7/3/13 low) near 50% of entire upleg from 11/12/16/12 low (134.70/184.94)

 

Momentum: Daily – Sell mode; Weekly – Sell mode; Monthly – Sell mode (Overbought/Tweezer Top)

Resistance:

***184.69 (12/31/13 high)/184.94 (1/15 record peak) double top area

181.75 (11/29/13 range high/181.66 (1/24 daily high-gap low)/181.34 (1/13 range low)

*179.81 (30 Jan range high)

Support:

***176.88 (Jan 29 range low)/177.32 (Dec 18 reaction low)/177.98/(Nov 20 low) near 38.2% of the upmove from 10/9/13 low (164.53/184.94 rise) and 100 day moving average

177.64 (11/7/13 range high) /177.51 (10/30/13 range high)

174.76 (11/7/13 low) near 14-month bull trendline from November 2012 low (connects 11/16/12 and 10/9/13 lows) and 50% of the upmove (164.53/184.94)

173.60 (9/19/13 high) near 23.6% of the entire upleg from 11/12/16/12 low (134.70/184.94)

170.97 (8/2/13 high) near the 200 day moving average

**169.07 (5/22/13 high) near 50% of upmove from 6/24/13 low (155.73/184.94) and potential H&S target

164.53 (10/9/13 higher low) near 38.2% of the entire upleg from 11/16/12 low (134.70/184.94)

159.71 (4/11/13 high)/160.22 (7/3/13 low) near 50% of entire upleg from 11/16/12 low (134.70/184.94)

157.52 (10/11/2007 peak) near 23.6% the entire upswing from March 2009 low (67.10/184.94)

DJIA made a new 6-week low, approaching key support at 15704

DJIA extended the decline off Tue’s 15946 high to break below Monday’s 15784 low, confirming a lower high at the former. With the daily MACD/Stochastics still weakening, further losses remains favored to retest the 15704 reaction low (12 Dec), near the 15710 prior peak (18 Sep) and 50% retracement of the 14719/16588 upleg. Below there would open the support cluster including15522 range low (5 Nov), the 200 day moving average (black line) and 61.8% retracement of the 14719/16588 rise.

However, an upside reversal above 15946 would delay bears and open 16141 (23 Jan low), relieving the oversold condition. Only clearing the falling 50 day moving average (brown line)/16241 (13 Jan low) strong resistance area would improve the outlook and stabilize for 16521 (21 Jan high). 

 

Resistance:

*** 16588 (31 Dec record high)

**16521 (21 Jan high)

**16241 (23 Jan swing low)

**16141 (23 Jan swing low) near the 50 day moving average (brown line.)

*15946 (28 Jan high)

 

Support:

***15704 (12 Dec reaction low)/15710 (18 Sep peak), near 50% of the 14719/16588 upleg

*15522 (5 Nov low), near 61.8% of the 14719/16588 upleg and 200 day moving average (black line)

 

 

***very very strong level**very strong*strong

Apple (AAPL): Bearish rising wedge breakdown; points lower towards $400