USDCAD was capped by a 17-month falling trendline (25 Nov 2011/4 Jun 2012/1 Mar highs). The subsequent descent has been following a 5-week bear channel (6/19 Mar highs and 15 Mar/2 Apr lows) to reach 1.0105 (4 Apr low) before consolidating. While the 1.0237 (5 Apr high) ceiling limits the bounce, scope remains for further weakness. A break below 1.0105 would signal bear continuation and open .9996 (14 Feb low) near the 200 day moving average currently at .9986. However, recycled strength above 1.0237 would delay and trigger further gains towards 1.0343 (1 Mar high) for a retest.
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