CHFJPY complets a triangle breakout, strengthening towards 146.96 next

Chfjpy is breaking above the 3-week falling trendline (linking 114.96/114.25) to signal triangle breakout. Bullish indicators support further upside. Above 114.25 opens 114.96 next. An extension through 114.96 would complete a base over 113.05/113.00 and expose 116.86.

The support cluster including the 200 day MA (pink line), the uptrend line (connecting 111.69/113.05) and 113.00/113.05 lows should hold dips.

A decisive breakdown below 113.00/05 would negate the upside and weaken towards 111.69.

CHFJPY daily chart

CHFJPY 240min chart

EURCHF extends lower within a falling wedge towards 1.2141/38 zone

EURCHF 240min chart

EURCHF daily chart

EURCHF extends weakness following bearish triangle breakdown, towards 1.2141 next

The Swiss National Bank shocked the market on Sept 6, 2011 when they introduced a EUR/CHF floor of 1.20. The pair rose to 1.2650 (May 20 2013). Since then, it has been sliding, leaving a series of lower highs (as shown on the weekly chart) to reach 1.2105 (March 3 2014).

Lately, bears broke below the triangle consolidation range, confirming bearish continuation and offering scope for a retest of the 1.2105 low.

September 6, 2014 will mark the 3-year anniversary of the peg.

The SNB never put a timeline on the actions, only saying it was to prevent deflation. What the SNB is going to do with the peg in September is going to be closely watched. Any change around the peg will cause volatility. 

EURCHF weekly chart

US Dollar Index (DXY) forms a 6-day falling wedge; wedge resistance continues to cap bounces; scope remains for downside

DXY is forming 6-day falling wedge (linking from 80.147 low and 80.430 high) as shown on the 240minute chart. While the falling wedge resistance caps the bounce, below 80.091 would weaken further towards 79.890 next. On the upside, we need to see a break above 80.430 which would confirm an upside wedge breakout and extends bullish momentum towards  81.020.

SELL Alert

DXY (US Dollar Index)

Sell zone:  80.300-80.400

Stop zone: 80.400-80.500

Targets: 80.000, 79.880, 79.700

US DOLLAR INDEX ($DXY) 240 minute chart

US DOLLAR INDEX ($DXY) daily chart

US Dollar Index (DXY) US Dollar Index seen narrower trading range between 78.906 and 81.482 within broad triangle formation; remains neutral medium term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) has been consolidating within an 8-year triangle as shown on the quarterly chart. For the last 21 months staring from September 2012, DXY tested the 79.00 area 4 times which held, showing strong support at the level. The trading range has become narrower over the last 8 months as DXY trades in the range between the 78.906 low and 81.482 high.

US DOLLAR INDEX ($DXY) weekly chart

US DOLLAR INDEX ($DXY) monthly chart

US DOLLAR INDEX ($DXY) quarterly chart

GBPUSD rallies to approach 2-month channel resistance near 1.7063 again

GBPUSD daily chart

Trade Ideas for Thursday (6/26)

Trade Ideas:

	DXY	USDCHF	USDJPY	USDCAD
Sell Zone	80.300-80.400	0.8940-0.8950	101.70-101.80	1.0720-1.0730
Stop Zone	80.400-80.500	0.8970-0.8980	101.90-102.00	1.0750-1.0760
Targets	80.000	0.8900	101.40	1.0650
	79.900	0.8880	101.00	1.0630
	79.700	0.8850	100.80	1.0590

USDJPY broke down through 9-day triangle support to eye 101.425 next

USDJPY has been forming a descending triangle over the last 6 months since posting the 105.480 YTD high (Jan 2). Wedenesday’s break below last 9-day triangle support suggests bearish continuation from the 102.810 high to retest 101.605. Below would open 101.425 ahead of 100.815. On the upside, only a break above the 102.15 area near the triangle upper bounds would stabilize and shift the focus to 102.810.

Sell zone: 101.80-95

Stop area: 102.10-20

Targets: 101.42, 101.25. 100.85

 

USDJPY 240 minute chart

 

USDJPY daily chart

USDJPY weekly chart

 

USDCHF completes a 5-week top and offers scope for further weakness towards .8865 next

 

 

 

USDCHF has been declining from the .9841 lower high to a 3-year low at .8699 before consolidating under the 20 month moving average (aqua blue line) as shown on the monthly chart.

On the daily chart, Dollar bears broke below 5-week trendline support, signaling completion of a 5-week top. Weakening indicators suggest a breakdown is favored ahead of further fall towards .8864, near 50% of the .8703/.9038 upleg.

.8976 near the 200/20 day moving averages (.8959) should cap bounces. On the upside, a break above there would stabilize and improve the outlook for .9015/.9038.

Sell zone: .8925-40

Stop zone: .8960-80

Targets: .8865, .8835, .8700

 

 

 

 

USDCHF 240minute chart

 

USDCHF daily chart

 
USDCHF weekly chart

 
USDCHF monthly chart

US Treasury 30-year bond futures completes a 3-week base, reopening 138-10

 

 

Bond futures rebounded strongly to confirm a 3-week base over 134-15/20 near the rising wedge support on the break above 136-11. With daily indicators turning bullish, scope remains for further gains towards the 138-23 peak. On the downside, a breakdown through 135-08 near the trendline support would suggest topping and expose 131-14. 

 

Buy zone: 135-28 / 136-07

Stop zone: 135-05 / 135-14

Targets:  137-09, 137-22, 138-10

Treasury Bond futures continuation daily chart

NZDUSD broke below 9-day rising wedge support to target .8642 next

NZDUSD broke down below the 9-day rising wedge support amid bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart. The next support comes in at .8642 (Jun 16 higher low) which is also near the wedge target (.8702/.8642 from .8707) ahead of .8620 (32.8% .8402/.8751 rise). A return back above .8751 would negate and extend broad uptrend towards .8781.

daily chart

240min chart

AUDUSD could pull back towards the .9322 level near rising bull trendline support

AUDUSD pulled back off Monday’s .9447 high (Jun 23) amid bearish RSI divergence marked on the daily chart. Further weakness is expected towards .9322 (Jun 18 swing low) near 50% of the .9208/.9447 rise and 4-month rising trendline support.

Bulls need to regain .9447 to confirm a higher base and extend the uptrend from the January lows towards .9463 next.  Please see the 4-hour chart for more price action details.

daily chart

240min chart

US 30 year bond futures testing 6-month rising wedge support; bearish MACD suggests lower

EURUSD forms potential bearish triangle pattern; a break below 1.3503 is needed to confirm

Eurusd has been consolidating, forming a 3-week triangle pattern within the 1.3503 low and the 1.3676 high as shown on the weekly chart. With both RSI and MACD still weak, a breakdown below the 1.3503 support remains favored ahead of further losses, extending the slide off the 1.3993 YTD peak, towards 1.3477 and the 200 week moving average currently at 1.3415.

A break above 1.3676 would negate and suggest basing, improving the outlook for 1.3735/1.3776 (19/12 May weekly highs).

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) is testing 12-month falling wedge resistance; Bullish momentum suggests further upside

GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) has had bullish price action since the minor double bottom at 21.93 (28/29 May), reaching 26.10 last Thursday (Jun 19), up 19% for the 3-week period.

GDX now is testing the 12-month falling wedge resistance as shown on the weekly chart. Despite the daily RSI now in the overbought territory, the bullish momentum near term suggests scope remains for further upside. A break through the wedge resistance would fuel gains towards 28.03 and 31.35 next. The converging 20/50 week moving averages in the 24.50 area and the 200 day moving average at 24.01 should provide support for any dips. On the downside, a break below 24.00 should caution for weakness towards 21.93.

GLD (GOLD ETF), with near term bullish momentum, could push towards 133-137 zone near 13-month flat range resistance

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) has been consolidating within a 13-month flat range as shown on the monthly chart. The last three weeks, GLD staged a strong comeback from the 119.42 low (Jun 3) to post a 2-month high at 127.23 last Thursday (Jun 19). Near term, as trend and momentum indicators are bullish, there is scope for further upside towards 133.69 (Mar 14 high) ahead of the 137.55 peak (Aug 28 2013, near 13-month range resistance). The converging 200/50 day moving averages near the 123.80 area should provide support on dips. A break below there would caution bulls for a 119.42 retest.

GLD (Gold ETF), with near term bullish momentum, could push towards 133-137 zone near 13-month flat range resistance

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) has been consolidating within a 13-month flat range as shown on the monthly chart. The last three weeks, GLD staged a strong comeback from the 119.42 low (Jun 3) to post a 2-month high at 127.23 last Thursday (Jun 19). Near term, as trend and momentum indicators are bullish, there is scope for further upside towards 133.69 (Mar 14 high) ahead of the 137.55 peak (Aug 28 2013, near 13-month range resistance). The converging 200/50 day moving averages near the 123.80 area should provide support on dips. A break below there would caution bulls for a 119.42 retest.